How to Steal 11 Million Votes
In his sermon today, Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei said, "If the difference was 100,000 or 500,000 or 1 million, well, one may say fraud could have happened. But how can one rig 11 million votes?"
I'm not saying the Ayatollah is bad at math, but let's begin by correcting his figures.
According to the official vote tally, Mahmoud Ahmadinijad won by a bit more than 11 million votes. (Ahmadinijad purportedly received 24.5 million votes; reformist Mir Hossein Moussavi received 13.2 million votes; two other candidates combined for about a million votes.)
But if the margin of victory is 11 million votes, you don't have to rig 11 million votes. You only have to rig 5.5 million votes. That is, if you take away 5.5 million votes from Mousavi and give them to Ahmadinijad, your problem has been solved. (In fact, you don't even have to steal quite that many, because Ahmadijinad avoided a runoff by a little less than 5 million votes. But let's pretend he needed 5.5 million.)
So, then. How do you rig 5.5 million votes?
1. You begin in Tabriz, the hometown of Mir-Hossein Mousavi, where Mousavi was expected to win at least 2-1. You steal 600,000 votes there.
2. Then you steal 1.3 million votes in Tehran, giving yourself just over 50% of the vote when in fact you got beat almost 1.5 to 1.
3. Then you steal 300,000 Mousavi votes from Lorestan, a province where your support inexplicably went from 20% in 2005 to 71% in 2009.
4. In the rest of the provinces--most of which you really did win--you take a little more than one of every ten Mousavi votes and pretend it's an Ahmadinijad vote. This gives you 3.3 million shiny new votes.
But wouldn't someone have noticed? Only if the Interior Ministry counted all the ballots, which it strongly appears they did not.
If Khamenei and Ahmadinijad are so confident this was a fair election, why wouldn't they just offer to recount the ballots? It's not like it would be that time-consuming. After all, they supposedly counted millions of ballots by hand in a few hours last week.
But why such a big margin of victory? Why not keep the numbers a little saner, so people wouldn't question the legitimacy of the victory?
Perhaps so the Ayatollah Khamenei could go to Friday prayers and say, "If the difference was 100,000 or 500,000 or 1 million, well, one may say fraud could have happened. But how can one rig 11 million votes?"
posted by John Green @ Friday, June 19, 2009
24 Comments
24 Comments:
That seems to be a legitimate (and possible) breakdown. I'm surprised it didn't happen here last November.
This is all so terrible. =(
It seems unlikely to me right now that they will actually recount the votes--but perhaps international pressure will eventually persuade them to?
You left out the possibility of simply not counting the votes, opting instead to fabricate the results you would like to see.
If you want to get 39,000,000 votes counted in 24 hours, you need 1000 vote counters counting one vote each 2 seconds - with no breaks. Okay - so maybe each worker only works for 8 hours. Then you need 3000 workers. And if you give them a 15 minute break every hour then you need 4000.
In a country that size, that number is certainly possible - but still allows for no redundancy checks and would still require instantaneous communication of the results.
As an educator, the BS meter is clearly flagged on this one. I have a hard time believing that there could possibly have been an accurate, reliable count of the votes in the time it took for the Supreme Leader to certify the winner.
(BTW, my model also assumes the votes are actually cast at a rate of at least 1000 votes every two seconds over the course of the entire day so that the votes are available to be counted.)
Hey, Gred- You Obama haters are going to have a rough next eight years. I really don't get it. Your comment would have made sense in 2004.
The 2/3rdish, 62% or whatever, figure, is conveniently *just* above what one would need to demand a runoff election. So that might be why the insane numbers.
A recount would only work if the Mousavi ballots hadn't been destroyed, which tweeters from Iran say they were. Accounts of ballot boxes being collected, emptied and burned in pro-Mousavi districts before they were counted were rampant in the hours after the polls finally closed.
And if there are no Mousavi ballots to recount, any effort would just hand the other side the win they have already claimed.
Thanks for pointing out that math error. I would never have caught it.
You write the best blogs, John :)
As a persian-american girl, you can believe that I'm pretty scared for my family overseas and just outraged that election fraud may have happened. (I'm leaning more on the side that it DID happen, but only a sith deals in absolutes! :D) The Iranian people deserve better than what they've been getting, what with all the basij killing and wounding the students and protesters. It really breaks my heart.
Thanks for all your opinions, Mr Green <3 I think more people should know about the Iranian people, and how intense and beautiful and forward thinking they can be. You're helping spread the word not only about the election, but about us in general.
much love!
persiankatt
John, my question is this: how can things turn out well? I see the following options.
1. Under threat of violence, the protests die. Iranians realize that their voices and votes count for nothing and don't bother with either in the future.
2. The protests continue. There's a bloody crackdown, killing, wounding, and terrifying those willing to stand up for their voices until no one will anymore. Nothing changes, and hopeful Iranians now realize their voices and votes matter to the government as much as their lives--not at all.
3. The protests continue, escalating until there's a full-scale revolution. However, since there are so many people in the country radically devoted to a government run by religion, no one gives ground on either side. The country collapses into warring factions with thousands and thousands dying. No end or resolution is in sight.
Is there another option? You've got the overthrow of communism in Romania, where the protests grew and grew until the dictator fled and was killed, and then leaders stepped in to form another government. But you didn't have the religious dynamic there that you have in Iran, and that can't be underestimated.
I'm not trying to be pessimistic; I'm genuinely interested if anyone sees any other possible outcomes. I respect and admire the Iranians standing up to corruption. I'm also terrified for them.
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Yes! I love all of your Iran posts. But I, too, worry about the fate of the protesters. I'm not sure that things can turn out well for them, though I certainly wish them the best.
I've read elsewhere that a recount (assuming there was a first count, which I'm not sure there was) wouldn't solve the situation so much, though - that's why a lot of the protesters are calling for a re-vote. Intimidation problems and then some rumors of burned ballots.
That breakdown is really interesting - thanks for posting it!
I'm sadly not all that informed ont his topic, but I do ahve to say that with every new thing you do I just admire you more and more. Quite honestly, John, I'm amazed you ahven't exploded from the awesome. They need a new word just to describe you and Hank. Gigaawesomes?
Kiersten:
I share your concern that this won't end well. I have not told people to go out on the streets, and I wouldn't, because A. I'm not sure it will work, and B. I don't think the change they really want is coming (unless somehow stunningly Khamenei is removed as the supreme leader).
But I don't agree that religion is much of a factor here. As noted in my previous post, the protesters are using the same slogans, relying upon the same God, and reading the same Quran as the government. The protesters are as religious as the hardliners.
Revolutions succeed against steep odds all the time (not only in Romania, but in the US, in India, and also in Iran in 1979). But they also fail all the time (witness, for instance, Burma). I don't think there's any telling at the moment.
Oh, I agree with you about the religion--I'm not saying it's only a tool of the hardliners. But it is a factor no matter what, and you didn't have that in Romania.
I can't see Khamenei backing down at all. Once again drawing on Romania, Chauchescu is pretty much the poster boy for how not to stay in control. He lost it because as protests escalated, he backed down and got scared, thus fueling the revolution. I think Iran will be absolutely rigid because it's the only thing the leaders can do to maintain control. They don't have any other options.
Anyhow. I'm rambling because I don't have many other forums to talk about this, and the whole thing makes me so nervous I don't know what to do with myself. Too many good people in impossible situations. Thanks for the insight and discussion.
Touche, touche.
Khamenei is a dickwad. That should be the #1 google search result for Khamenei.
John can do math. Or did you call Daniel. Very creative.
Thanks for the figures. I feel horrible for their situation and the fact that there seems to be no plausible options for them to pursue for justice.
Though someone mentioned international pressure as something that might persuade Iran's leaders, I just worry that there won't be that much international pressure. I mean, America's response hasn't been that overwhelming-- although this is certainly understand taking all of the complexities and outcomes involved into account, as our government's interference would likely cause more problems.
In the end, I just worry-- as those who've said before-- that whichever outcome does come to pass is not going to seem like a victory for those who are protesting. But I hope my worries are proved wrong.
Understood*
http://punditkitchen.files.wordpress.com/2009/06/political-pictures-mahmoud-ahmedinejad-votes-got.jpg?w=500&h=303
This made me think of you.
Best wishes!
Did you see Jackson Pearce's "Looking for Looking for Alaska"? Pretty cute.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=myj9jQx9sU0
I'm not good at math, but that seems to be good breakdown of the numbers.
Things MIGHT chill down a little if they decided to have another voting day, at the least. Denying the votes were stolen and even counting the ballots again (because apparently most were burned) won't solve anything.
I've seen two videos of deaths tonight and it's really sad and disturbing, like the cries from Neda's father. It's been a week; they should really consider what to do for a peaceful future instead of dwelling on a corrupt past.
I found it telling that Khamenei came out yesterday threatening Iranian citizens after days of apparent appeasement. It seems he was merely buying time waiting for the crowds to thin and for everyone to go back to their Iranian Idol episodes. When they didn't, his true intentions surfaced. I think you can add that to the case against that government.
International pressure is a though thing to do nicely; like Obama has been very choosy with his words because of the whole Uranium/Nuclear situation hiding behind the scenes...
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